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The "Gambler's Fallacy" in ...
The -gambler's fallacy- is the belief that the probability of an event is lowered when that event has recently occurred, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent from one trial to the next. This paper provides evidence on the time pattern of lottery participation to see whether actual behavior is consistent with this fallacy. Using data from the Maryland daily numbers game, we find a clear and consistent tendency for the amount of money bet on a particular number to fall sharply immediately after it is drawn, and then gradually to recover to its former level over the course of several months. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that lottery players are in fact subject to the gambler?s fallacy
Monografía
monografia Rebiun36789685 https://catalogo.rebiun.org/rebiun/record/Rebiun36789685 m o d cr ||||||||||| 140320s1991 mau o 000 0 eng d DKDLA 820120-katalog:999889145405765 UAO ocn873993206 DKDLA dan pn DKDLA OCLCQ OCLCL OCLCQ 519.2 OCoLC 20/eng/20230216 The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play Charles T. Clotfelter, Philip J. Cook Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1991 Cambridge, Mass. Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 1 online resource 1 online resource Tekst txt rdacontent/dan computer c rdamedia/dan NBER working paper series no. w3769 The -gambler's fallacy- is the belief that the probability of an event is lowered when that event has recently occurred, even though the probability of the event is objectively known to be independent from one trial to the next. This paper provides evidence on the time pattern of lottery participation to see whether actual behavior is consistent with this fallacy. Using data from the Maryland daily numbers game, we find a clear and consistent tendency for the amount of money bet on a particular number to fall sharply immediately after it is drawn, and then gradually to recover to its former level over the course of several months. This pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that lottery players are in fact subject to the gambler?s fallacy Cook, Philip J. Clotfelter, Charles T. National Bureau of Economic Research NBER working paper series no. w3769